Prediction markets, AI, and edge.
Practical guides to trading Polymarket, sizing positions with Kelly Criterion, and finding where the market has it wrong.
5 Mistakes Polymarket Traders Make That Cost Them Money
Most Polymarket traders lose not because they read the world wrong — they lose because of systematic errors in sizing, signal interpretation, and trade management. Here is what to stop doing.
What Is Kelly Criterion? The Math Behind Prediction Market Position Sizing
Kelly Criterion is the mathematical formula that tells you exactly how much of your bankroll to bet given your edge. Here is how it works, why full Kelly is dangerous, and how serious prediction market traders apply it.
AI vs. Human Forecasters: Who Actually Wins on Polymarket?
Superforecasters beat the average person by roughly 60% on Brier scores. AI models have access to all published human knowledge. Which produces better prediction market probabilities? The answer is more nuanced than most people expect.
7 Ways Prediction Market Prices Get It Wrong
Prediction market prices are well-calibrated on average. But average calibration conceals systematic patterns where prices consistently deviate from actual probabilities. These are the patterns where real edge exists.
Why 3 AI Agents Are Better Than 1 for Prediction Market Trading
Using a single AI model as your prediction market oracle is opinion trading with extra steps. Here is why independent consensus across multiple agents produces meaningfully better signal — and what the math says about ensemble forecasting.